WIIN-BFS

Remarks: My BFS is ahead of Index Fund by 37%.
Date Start: 1Jan2008
NAV = $4,390 as of date 02Sep2010
Annualized returns (since 1Jan2008) = -3.84% p.a
===================================
Benchmark: iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (ETF)
Date Start: 1Jan2008
NAV = $3,196 as of date 02Sep2010
Annualized returns (since 1Jan2008) = -14.62% p.a

Project Snowball

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Thursday, July 31, 2008

SINGAPORE Corp Results

Date Time Company RIC Period Forecast
28-Jul-2008 K-REIT Asia [KASA.SI] Q2
28-Jul-2008 Singapore Airlines [SIAL.SI] Q1
28-Jul-2008 Raffles Medical Group [RAFG.SI] Q2
29-Jul-2008 Singapore Petroleum Corp [SPCS.SI] Q2
29-Jul-2008 Singapore Post [SPOS.SI] Q1
29-Jul-2008 Fortune REIT (HK$) [FORT.SI] Q2
30-Jul-2008 Keppel Land [KLAN.SI] Q2
30-Jul-2008 CapitaRetail China Trust [CRCT.SI] Q2
30-Jul-2008 Suntec REIT [SUNT.SI] Q3
31-Jul-2008 Keppel Corp [KPLM.SI] Q2
1-Aug-2008 Capitaland [CATL.SI] Q2
5-Aug-2008 Great Eastern Hldgs [GELA.SI] Q2
5-Aug-2008 SembCorp Marine [SCMN.SI] Q2
5-Aug-2008 United Overseas Bank [UOBH.SI] Q2
6-Aug-2008 Starhub [STAR.SI] Q2
6-Aug-2008 SembCorp Industries [SCIL.SI] Q2
6-Aug-2008 Venture Corp [VENM.SI] Q2
7-Aug-2008 Singapore Exchange [SGXL.SI] Q2
7-Aug-2008 Neptune Orient Lines [NEPS.SI] Q3
7-Aug-2008 DBS Group Hldgs [DBSM.SI] Q2
7-Aug-2008 Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp [OCBC.SI] Q2
8-Aug-2008 Asia Pacific Breweries [APBB.SI] Q3
8-Aug-2008 Fraser & Neave [FRNM.SI] Q3
11-Aug-2008 Singapore Technologies Engineering [STEG.SI] Q2
12-Aug-2008 Singapore Telecommunications [STEL.SI] Q1
13-Aug-2008 Datacraft Asia [DCFT.SI] Q3

For trading/ account opening inquiries, pls reply to this email waynekohwg@gmail.com for further clarifications.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Singapore Airlines

Came across this piece of news over the radio and newspaper (online/print):

Singapore Air aims to keep S$1/share annual dividend
Click here for full news

I went to Yahoo! Finance and found that SIA's 52-week price range had been S$13.86 - S$20.20

Apply the S$1/share annual dividend: Shares bought at S$13.86 will be yielding 7.22% in dividends and shares bought at S$20.20 will be yielding 4.95%. The median price of S$16.48 yields 6.07%. The last traded price (29Jul2008) of S$15.38 yields 6.50%.

Not bad.

Here is the 1-yr chart for SIA:
Here is the chart of SIA vs STI:
Note that SIA's price is quite corelated with STI.
p.s: SIA is a component stock of Straits Times Index STI; weightage about 4.39%

SIA shares can be purchased in lot of 1,000 shares or 200 shares (SIA 200); Alternatively, smaller investors can acquire SIA shares through Share Builder Plan in monthly fixed investment dollar amount using "drip in money" strategy.

For trading/ account opening inquiries, pls reply to this email waynekohwg@gmail.com for further clarifications.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Another FD Beater

If you are "scared" of the equities market (or at least for now);
If you find that fixed deposit returns are not good enough;
There is still something to look at.....

I received info from "N" company on this promo that they are running til 31 Oct2008. Did my usual stuff, and plotted the results on this spreadsheet:The "best case scenario" of 3.21% is slightly better than NestEgg's 3.08%, both non-guaranteed.
I'm not asking that everyone make the rush to sign this up now. Look at the Guaranteed and Non-guaranteed portions and make an informed decision.
This may offer a good alternative to the "Fixed Deposit" part of a portfolio. In a nutshell, this may be good for:

1) people who put mid to long term in fixed deposit; Even the "worst case scenario" of 1.0%(normal)~1.2%(promo) p.a 0ver 5 years is slightly better than fixed deposit returns;

2) people who allocate 20% to 50% of portfolio into low-risk instruments;

Available using Cash, CPF-OA & SRS. My personal opinion on using these three:-
a) Cash: as per points 1) & 2) above
b) CPF-OA: It's a fairly good chance that the end results would be better than the 2.5% CPF interest.
c) SRS: as per points 1) & 2) above

On the side, the "extras" would be the 125% insurance coverage on death/TPD and "2 times sum assured+bonus" coverage on accidental death. Like I said, this is just "extras" and should not be the anchor of any informed decision.

Fixed Deposit rates reference: MAS

Feel free to contact waynekohwg@gmail.com / 8288.9005 (mobile) for details and clarifications.

Fidelity Taiwan Talking Point

Note from FIL Investment Management (Singapore) Limited

=============================================
Like most countries, the effects of the poor performance of the US market did spill over to the Taiwan market. However, The Taiwan market has indeed performed very well on a relative basis compared to other Asian markets. It is also noted that several sectors have been responding well to the change in government.

The sectors include the financial and property sectors, as well as sectors relating to companies in the airline, hotel and retail industries. The cyclical materials sector is also still seeing growth thanks to its exposure to emerging markets demand and a tightness in global capacity growth. Stephen Ma, portfolio manager of the Fidelity Funds - Taiwan Fund, evaluates on the Taiwan market post government election, his take on expected political risks to the economy, the effect of techonology stocks dominating the Taiwan market as well as his portfolio management during this period.
=============================================
For a more detailed read, kindly reply to this email waynekohwg@gmail.com so I can send to you individually via email. (Total 2 files est. 1.0MB in all)

TSEC weighted index (Taiwan) chart:-





Daily market report

I found this daily market report's link that has a brief and quick round-up of the overnight markets in US and Europe and major indices traded in the day before.

It also includes a set of key economic data that is due to be released in the coming week or so.

The link (for 29Jul2008) is here: http://internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/Poems/UnitTrust/Research/UT%20daily%20market%20update%20290708.pdf

tip: From the browser, you can edit the date (in this case, it's "xxx290708.pdf") at the end of the URL link to get the actual report, bypassing the main website. Example, for tomorrow's report, it will be "xxx300708.pdf".

Unsure? Pls write to this email waynekohwg@gmail.com so I can send the link to you individually via email daily. (Subject: Phillip daily market report)

Monday, July 28, 2008

Henderson Horizon Global Financials Fund

This is not exactly a new fund per se, just that it got to me only recently.

Henderson Horizon Global Financials Fund
The investment objective of the Henderson Horizon Fund - Global Financials Fund (the “Fund”) is to achieve long-term capital appreciation, relative to the benchmark, through investment of at least two-thirds of its total assets (after deduction of cash) in securities of companies within the financial services industry in any geographical region. The Fund is denominated in €/ SGD.

For fund factsheet, pls click here or reply to this email waynekohwg@gmail.com so I can send to you individually via email.

Other financials-related funds:-
- LionGlobal Financial Services Investment
- UOB United Global Capital Fund

And as always, my take is to adopt this strategy: "Drip in money" + Core-Satellite allocation.

Try out new ways.....upd 25Jul2008

Date Start: 1Jan2008
NAV = $4,259.72 as of date 25Jul2008
Returns to-date (since 1Jan2008) = -14.81%

Benchmark: iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (ETF)
Date Start: 1Jan2008
NAV = $4,176.40 as of date 25Jul2008
Returns to-date (since 1Jan2008) = -14.47%

Sunday, July 27, 2008

From: Thomas Yip

"Wayne has demonstrated that he has an expert knowledge in the domain of investing. He was able to instill my hunger for more knowledge on the topics he presented and at the same time maintain the humour in his presentation. When he first approached our company for a "free" talk, I was skeptical but he kept his words and there was no product selling or pushing in the process. I would recommend him to other companies for an insightful and valuable session that is absolutely free of obligation. "

- Thomas Yip
Director
Engineering software industry

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Quotes (027-2008)

"No matter how far you have gone on the wrong road, turn back."

===== A Turkish proverb =====

p.s: above quote was mentioned in the book 'The Difference Maker' by John C. Maxwell

From: Simon Ang

"Wayne has shown a willingness to share his knowledge and his insights on the market to his clients. He is able to explain most of the policies well and has shown spontaneity and dedication in helping his clients in resolving their doubts. "

- Simon Ang
Senior Manager
Public Service Sector

Friday, July 25, 2008

DBS Vickers Equity Research-Singtel

Price Target : 12-month S$ 3.75
Reason for Report : Bharti Results
Potential Catalyst:
(1) Potential special dividends in FY09,
(2) launch of iPhone in Singapore in 3QFY09

===========================================
If you are interested to learn more, pls reply to this email waynekohwg@gmail.com so I can send to you individually via email. Only one file: 100kb.
p.s: Singtel is a component stock of Straits Times Index STI; weightage about 11.26%

United Asia Pacific Infrastructure Fund-June08

UOBAM: Equity commentary: United Asia Pacific Infrastructure Fund (June 08)

During the 2nd quarter of 2008, the Fund decreased by 8.09% on a NAV basis.

Asian equity markets declined as oil prices hit record high prices, heightening concerns on inflation and risks to growth. Signs of slower global growth and further write-downs by global banks also weighed on sentiment. Asia continues to face increasing challenges of rising inflation and moderating growth, against the backdrop of rising oil prices. In the month of June, Asian equity markets (MSCI AC Asia ex Japan) declined 12.2% as crude oil hits USD140/bbl, underperforming global equity market (MSCI World) which was down 8.3%.

===========================================
If you are interested to learn more, pls reply to this email waynekohwg@gmail.com so I can send to you individually via email. Only one file: 50kb.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Ask for water

Of late, I've been spending some quality time with my daughter who just turned 600-day-old, so I'm in kinda "family mood" feeling like a "great dad"; This article by Dr. Money came my way and I thought it's good to share:-

One of the $ games Dr. Money plays with his children:
" (ii) A money game at restaurants focuses on their highest mark-up item: Drinks. If you ask for water instead, you can quench your thirst with no cost and no calories. It's a great inflation fighter. When our kids order water, they get to split the savings with us. If a drink costs $2 and water costs $0, then our daughters earn half the savings of $1.
It also teaches a lesson of capitalism: Don't take all the profits. Deals work best when there is something in it for everyone, including mom and dad. "




Read the full article.

I too have some ideas on such little tips to share. Let me gather my thoughts and share them here at a later date. :-)

From: Kwee Eng

"Wayne takes initiative to share valuable investment tips with his clients regularly. He follows up the necessary promptly. I am lucky to have an investment adviser like him."

- Kwee Eng
Principal Systems Analyst
Medical Industry

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

From: Felicia Ang

"One thing I am impressed with Wayne is his enthusiasm in the insurance industry. He is definitely not the stereotypical “life insurance kind of adviser". He is very concerned about how he can help people prepare their nest egg for retirement. He is always reminding me the importance of saving up for the next 20-30 yrs after retirement and taking care of my medical bills from young.

He is also very well read and hungry for knowledge about investing. He demonstrates prudent investing. I like his 'drip in money' approach. Last but not least, his sincerity and patience to every client (regardless of the clients' potentiality) is something that many advisers lack of today."

- Felicia Ang
Pharmaceutical Industry

From: Alex Lim H.C

Wayne has demonstrated professionalism as a financial adviser. Perhaps the best indication of this is that many a time he could have earned more commission by selling me an alternative plan but he did not. He will explain clearly to me the shortfall of the plan and recommend to me another plan, which will benefit me.

In a market spoilt by ruthless advisers whose motives are purely financial gains, he has brought new life to an otherwise jaded industry.

I highly recommend him to any corporation that wishes to engage a professional speaker whose first priority is to bring a value to your employees.”

- Alex Lim H.C
Engineering industry


Aberdeen Weekly Update 21Jul2008

Overview

Asian equities continued to fall on fresh concerns that slowing economic growth and high inflation will erode corporate profits.

Click here to read more..

Fund postponed





Launch of SGAM AsiaPAC Income Plus Fund has been postponed due to poor market sentiment, according to fund manager SGAM's circular.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Annuity Plan

In recent months, "T" company launched a plan that works like an annuity plan, even though the plan name does not suggest.

What is it about:
In plain words, i.e less the jargons, the policy holder pays $XXX.XX (monthly or yearly) for XX number of years, upon age 65, gets 4% of sum assured for the rest of the policy holder's life (100 years, 120 years, 150 years maybe? Nothing is impossible)

Example, if sum assured is $100k, then the payout (from age 65 onwards) is $4k every year after year.....

I generated 3 quotes (15,20,25 years limited payment term) based on the following profile:-
Name: Mr M.
Age: 35
Non-smoker
Sum Assured: $100k (Protection: D/TPD) (No DD coverage)
Assuming Mr M lives til age 100, he will get $4k per year from age 65 onwards

This is what I get (See image below for a pictorial representation):-
15 years: pay $3035 per year (IRR = 2.98%)
20 years: pay 2592 per year (IRR = 2.8%)
25 years: pay $2362 per year (IRR = 2.6%)
IRR means Internal Rate of Return. The IRRs are rather ok (considering that this is relatively low risk compared to funds); 20 or 25 years plan would be considered if Mr M has a budget constraint or would like to channel more money towards BTITR.

click image to enlarge

So, what can this plan be of use to anyone?
1) Position it as the "predictable cashflow" portion of your retirement plan;
2) Complement it with a BTITR (BTITR supposedly should generate higher returns than this annuity plan, but lacks the predictability feature).

Therefore, if Mr M uses this annuity plan with BTITR, he gets:-
a) A guaranteed annual amount of $4k (forever, well, literally);
b) A higher amount from BTITR portfolio that can be withdrawn on a monthly/annual basis.

Also, note that I did not include Dread Disease coverage for the annuity plan, as I think it is not worthwhile (costly).

Feel free to contact waynekohwg@gmail.com for details and clarifications.

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Shield Plan Cost Age 30 to 85

Q: How much does it cost to have an "As-charged" Shield plan from age 30 to 85?

A: $32,311 + $46,563 + $24,034 = $102,908
(Enhanced Incomeshield Preferred Plan + Assist Rider)
Among which $32,311 comes from CPF Medisave & the rest from cash. The cash portion is high due to the CPF ruling that one can only use up to a maximum of $800 per year for such shield plan.

I have developed an Excel spreadsheet that calculates the cost in any given age range (age 1 to 99, 20 to 65, 30 to 85 etc).
These are namely the four insurers that I have put side by side in my spreadsheet: Income, Aviva, Prudential, Great Eastern.

A sample can be found here:-
click on image to enlarge

Though the figures stated look intimidating, the actual fact is that we have a "friend" called "CPF interest"; If one aged 30 now has $10,105 in his/her CPF Medisave account, it will be sufficient to cover the premiums til age 85 (provided CPF Medisave interest maintain @ 4.0%-4.5% and the premiums do not increase substantially over time) based on today's calculation.
And for the cash portion, he/she can start saving NOW for it, for example, saving up part of annual bonus or on a monthly regular basis, i.e my favorite "drip in money" way. To top it up, do it via SRS and save on income taxes as well.

If you like to find out how much is your own shield plan (projected cost), you can fill out this form with your details, and I can calculate and email to you within 48 hours of your submission.
p.s: This is free "national service" for residents of Singapore, including PRs.

References to my previous articles:
http://www.waynekoh.com/2008/04/do-you-have-s9k-in-your-medisave.html
http://www.waynekoh.com/2008/05/post-retirement-hospitalization-and.html
http://www.waynekoh.com/2007/11/as-charged-medical-plan-takes-load-off.html

Inspired by this article

Saturday, July 19, 2008

BTITR-Part2

Buy Term Invest The Rest and reduce taxes (Part 2)

As a follow-up to BTITR, this is another example of someone who has a lower monthly budget.

Name: Mr M.
Age: 35
Non-smoker
Budget: $300 per month

Comparison:


BTITR achieves $43,732 more based on 5%p.a returns and $108,986 more based on 9%p.a returns.
On the other hand, BTITR pays $1,246 lesser than ILP to the agent in first year commission.

I would suggest Mr. M to do BTITR and contribute $2,556 (the investment component in "drip in new money": $213.00 x 12 months) and invest from his SRS account. By doing this, he saves about $112 in income taxes for the year, which is 1.25 months' worth of term insurance premium or half month's worth of his $213 investment amount.

This is something which insurance agents selling ILP will NOT (and probably NEVER) share with you.

Feel free to contact waynekohwg@gmail.com for details and clarifications.

Cancer Atlas


I chanced upon this interesting "Cancer Atlas" which was posted on http://tankinlian.blogspot.com/

According to this research published by American Cancer Society, for Singapore, the chances of developing a cancer before age 65 is 10%-12.4%; Which means if you circle yourself in a group of 10 persons, one person has that chance.

Interestingly, people in places like India, Saudi Arabia, Egypt (areas colored in light blue) are of much lower chances. And people in USA and Australia are among the highest. (p.s: I thought Aussies are rather laid-back people??)

Friday, July 18, 2008

Quotes (026-2008)

".....we are actually paid for holding other people’s money....."

"Float is wonderful – if it doesn’t come at a high price. ......float is better than free."


===== Warren Buffett, The 2004 Chairman's Letter, Berkshire Hathaway =====

Recommended to read page 5 (at least) : "Insurance"
Click here to download



Drip in new money (Part 4)

Someone asked me this question after yesterday's posting, "So, based on your 'Drip in new money (Part 3)' chart, how long does it take to double your money, right from the very first dollar?"

The answer is: at least 10 years, in an annualized returns of 14% p.a
Then, what about the next double bagger, is it another 10 years?
The answer is: No, the next double bagger is at the 19th year (shorter by one year), in the same annualized returns of 14% p.a
It is quite challenging to achieve a minimum of 14% p.a returns, though it is not entirely impossible to do so. Maybe a handful of more savvy investors (say 5% of them) will be able to achieve that. Great investors like Warren Buffett is one such example.
A more realistic way is to invest "Drip in money" style for the long term, say 25-30 years at an annualized returns of 8% p.a.
"Drip in money" a.k.a Dollar-cost averaging is not designed to generate extra-ordinary high returns, but rather, its primary purposes are:
(1) to reduce market-timing risk and,
(2) to preserve the purchasing power of the money into the future.

Feel free to contact waynekohwg@gmail.com for details and clarifications.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Drip in new money (Part 3)

Further to my earlier blogs "Drip in new money" in Mar2008, I have refined the table to a much easier version to use.How to use it:
a) Fix a monthly investment amount;
b) assume an annualized returns in % p.a (typically 5% to 9% p.a);
c) set a period of investment in number of years;
d) get the corresponding figure in the table matrix;
e) multiply the monthly investment amount by the figure in (d);
f) this would be the estimated gross portfolio value by the end of the set time frame.

Example:
a) investment sum-monthly $188
b) assume annualized returns: 8% p.a
c) investment period: 25 years
d) corresponding figure in the table matrix: 886.27
e) 886.27 multiply by 188
f) estimated portfolio value by end of 25 years: $166,618.04

You can use this table to cross-check the typical "5%" and "9%" in most (ILP) insurance-linked-policies' benefit illustration; You may find that it is more worthwhile to do "Buy Term Invest The Rest (BTITR)" than buying the ILP. You also need to set aside a portion of the monthly amount towards the premium of a term insurance plan for BTITR.

For example, for a sum of $200 per month, a 30-yr old may set aside $65-$70 for the term insurance plan and invest the balance $135-$140 into "Drip in new money".

Furthermore, if you are paying income taxes, you can reduce some taxes using SRS, something which insurance agents selling ILP will NOT (and probably NEVER) share with you.

Feel free to contact waynekohwg@gmail.com for details and clarifications.

New Fund Launch-DWS Global Inflation Buster

DWS Global Inflation Buster is an actively-managed equity product that acknowledges the unique drivers behind the current inflationary environment. They apply a thematic approach to the construction and management of the fund, leveraging on our global research capabilities.

The DWS Global Inflation Buster is benchmark independent; giving the investment team the full flexibility to invest in any theme, sector, country, stock that benefits from the inflationary environment. The aim of the investment policy of DWS Global Inflation Buster is to achieve the highest possible appreciation of capital for the assets through investments in companies which – according to the assessment of the fund manager – should benefit from present or future inflationary trends.

IPO: 15 Jul – 8 Aug 2008
IPO prospetus


P.s: If you are interested, pls reply to this email waynekohwg@gmail.com so I can send the brochure to you individually via email (when I get hold of them).

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

UOBAM Q3-2008 strategy

Update from UOBAM
================
Central banks have shifted their focus from sustaining growth to curbing inflation. The period of benign neglect for the US dollar is over. Inflationary pressure and a strong US dollar will put strain on Emerging Market currencies, especially the economies with weak fundamentals.

We retain our underweight position on equities and stay neutral on bonds. Within equities, we shift to neutral in the US and remain overweight in Japan. We keep our underweight in Europe and are now also underweight in Emerging Markets. We have restored our overweight in commodities in May and maintain this position going into the third quarter.

If you are interested to learn more, continue to read on our investment outlook, asset allocation, global equity strategy, global income strategy and currency strategy.
================================================
pls reply to this email waynekohwg@gmail.com so I can send to you individually via email. Only one file: 5MB.

Quotes (025-2008)

“Mr. Market is your business partner; you and he own equal shares in a private enterprise. Every day, without fail, Mr. Market offers to buy your interest in the business, or sell you his, at a certain price. The problem is, his quotes are all over the place, for Mr. Market is emotionally unstable. Some days he is cheerful and optimistic, and offers an unreasonably high price for your share of the business. At other times, he is gloomy and depressed, and quotes a very low price. But even if you ignore his offer today, Mr. Market doesn’t give up. He will be back again tomorrow with a new one.”

===== Benjamin Graham =====

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Mean Reversion

Came across this term "mean reversion" on Bloomberg's "Podcast: Economics" several times and decided to find out more about it.

Definition from Investopedia:
A theory suggesting that prices and returns eventually move back towards the mean or average. This mean or average can be the historical average of the price or return or another relevant average such as the growth in the economy or the average return of an industry.

I imposed this concept onto my STI 1-yr annualized returns chart and got this:-
If mean reversion is in sight, then STI should be at the 4,373 level in Jul2009.
But if the downward trend persists, STI may hit 1,500.
Let's see if maths will work in this case.

Monday, July 14, 2008

Market updates from UOBAM

=== Message from UOB AM=====

Dear all,

Global equity markets reversed their recent rally and started to weaken towards the end of May with Asia-ex-Japan leading the way. Indicators continue to point towards economic weakness and this remains a cloud on the immediate horizon. Record energy and food prices are also feeding inflationary pressures, creating additional challenges to already difficult financial conditions. While inflation is generally viewed as a negative in terms of eroding purchasing power, it is being viewed in Japan as a positive indicator - that its longstanding deflationary problems are gone and buried. We remain skeptical as to whether the shift to inflation signals a return to a positive growth outlook for Japan.

Forward-looking growth indicators continue to point towards a slowdown, with the risk of recession extending beyond the US to other major economies. We see increasingly worrying indicators in the UK, as the economy grapples with falling house prices, financial sector de-leveraging, and potentially weak employment prospects. We are increasingly concerned that tighter financial conditions in Europe will have an adverse impact on economic performance going into the latter part of 2008 and into early 2009. The defensive posture in terms of the types of companies that we are targeting prevails, as does our decision to underweight consumer discretionary and mid-cycle industrial companies. We have reined in our earlier optimism, but still retain a slight overweight in Asia-ex-Japan where earnings growth prospects are stronger.

P.s: I am unable to attach the PDF on blogger. If you are interested, pls reply to this email waynekohwg@gmail.com so I can send to you individually via email. All files add up to 150kb.

Fidelity Inflation-Linked Bond Fund part 2

This is a follow-up to Fidelity Inflation-Linked Bond Fund

2 more files (pdf) available.
- Talking point (with Fund Manager)
- Insight Education

P.s: I am unable to attach the PDF on blogger. If you are interested, pls reply to this email waynekohwg@gmail.com so I can send to you individually via email. All files add up to 500kb.

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Try out new ways.....upd 11Jul2008

Date Start: 1Jan2008
NAV = $4,153.37 as of date 11Jul2008
Returns to-date (since 1Jan2008) = -16.39%

Benchmark: iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (ETF)
Date Start: 1Jan2008
NAV = $4,099.69 as of date 11Jul2008
Returns to-date (since 1Jan2008) = -16.01%

Saturday, July 12, 2008

LP-DD Term

Recently, "T" company launched a new plan that is the first and most probably, one and only plan in Singapore- A limited-pay term insurance plan that embeds dread disease protection and offers coverage til age 85.

I generated the benefit illustration ($100k sum assured, 15 years limited pay) for a client (age NB 25, male, non-smoker) but suspected something looks amiss. So I decided to generate another benefit illustration from the same "T" company , but a different plan (whole-life $100k sum assured, 15 years limited pay). The difference in the monthly premiums between the two plans is a mere $31.10.

So I thought, since I've been talking about BTITR, let's try BTITR to at least compare the cash values.

I assume that the investment can achieve a long-term annualized returns of 8% p.a for the next 40 years. I get $70,108.30 as the value of the investment for the $31.10 difference being channeled into "drip in money", assuming it is possible to do so.

I cross-check against the cash value of the whole life plan. Let's say the returns are on the upper end of 5.25% projection, the cash value (guaranteed + non-guaranteed) is $106,300, 52% better in terms of cash value.

Note: BTITR in this case still lost out to traditional whole-life plan even at a higher projected returns.

Therefore, the whole life-plan wins hands down.

In order for the BTITR to be on par with the whole-life plan, the monthly premium of the term plan needs to be lowered by 9.8%.

Conclusion, limited-pay term insurance is still at its infancy stage though the idea is novel. Perhaps this was done deliberately at the product development stage by "T" company, so as not to cannibalize its own whole-life plan.

Stocks Better Economy Worse


Jim Jubak's take on the current bear market:

Stocks are in better shape now than they were in the 2000-02 bear market, but the economy is far sicker. Look for a stock recovery to lead the economy by more than the usual 6 months.

The McKinsey Quarterly

The McKinsey Quarterly is another source of good business articles that spans across several corporate functions and industries.

It is a good source of references for people studying business administration, economics, finance, marketing, I.T management.

While the basic FREE subscription is good enough for me, at times, The McKinsey Quarterly do "open up" their 'Premium' articles for reading/ downloading.

My favourite article is "The Irrational Component of Your Stock Price" published in Summer 2006.

Simply register, and setup the RSS feed on Google Reader and you will be updated regularly.
The McKinsey Quarterly articles are also available in audio versions on iTunes.

Friday, July 11, 2008

Insider trading at Cosco

THE Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has imposed one of its heaviest civil penalties ever on the former financial controller of Cosco Corporation Singapore, Teo Chuan Teck, by fining him $320,000 for insider trading — acting on price-sensitive information that is not generally available to the investor-at-large.

Read more from TODAY

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Quick links to Asia Pacific Indices

Yahoo Finance:
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
For Yahoo Finance: These indices are reported with some time delay; the time delay can be seen here: http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/exchanges

Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/wei_region3.html
Unless indicated otherwise: intraday data is at least 15 minutes delayed; mutual fund NAVs are updated at the close of every market day; all prices are in the local currency; Time is ET.

(tips: click on refresh button
OR
"Ctrl+R" on keyboard to refresh)

Making Sense of Unit Trust

In my search for an answer for a friend, I chanced upon this "Making Sense of Unit Trust" guide, which spells out the ins and outs of things to do with unit trusts in Singapore.

click on image to download the guide (pdf) / size: 556kb

Free SGX research reports

Here is a source where you can get Free SGX research reports:-


http://research.sgx.com/users/register.cgi



Simply register, and setup the RSS feed on Google Reader and you will be updated regularly.

Alternatively, you can open a stocks trading account with Wayne Koh (yours truly), and I can set up even more and in-depth research, analysts' reports delivered to your email daily and timely. Such service is available only to clients.

Inquiries:
waynekohwg@gmail.com | +65 8288.9005 | skype: waynekohweeguan

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Quotes (024-2008)

Billionaire investor and philanthropist Sir John Templeton passed away this morning after a long illness. He was 95.

if you remember nothing else about Sir John, remember these two timeless pieces of advice:

1. "The best time to invest is when you have money. This is because history suggests it is not timing the markets that matters, it is time."

2. "To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are avidly buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest ultimate rewards."

http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2008/07/08/the-worlds-most-important-investor.aspx

STI 8Jul2008

Today I tried applying 6 months and 12 months to my "annualized" charting. (Can't really put a name or methodology to it yet). Also, I'm not sure if anyone else has done anything like this before.
I draw a support line (orange color) across the chart, and it looks the STI has reached a "bottom" at -40% level and should "bounce" back to 100% level within next 12 to 18 months, based on historical trends.

STI as of 7Jul2008: 2934.12

From STI @ 2824.91 on 20Mar2008, Forward looking (til 18Sep2008):
50% level: STI @ 3450 (17% upside from 2934.12)
80% level: STI @ 3774 (28% upside from 2934.12)
100% level: STI @ 3976 (35% upside from 2934.12)

Come to think of it, this looks like an RSI chart; with the (-40% to -50%) range being the oversold level, and (50% to 60%) range being the overbought range.
Note: DO NOT mix up the 50%, 60% and other % as a direct % application, unless specifically mentioned.

Related investments:-
a) streetTRACKS STI ETF (Exchange Traded Fund)
b) Aberdeen Singapore Equity Fund (Mutual Fund)

And as always, my usual advise: "Drip in money" + Core-Satellite allocation

Inquiries:
waynekohwg@gmail.com | +65 8288 9005 | skype: waynekohweeguan

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Seminar on ElderShield Supplements

We will be having a seminar on Aviva MyCare. Details as follow:
Date: 2nd Aug 2008 (Sat) 12.00pm to 2.00pm
Venue: The Stage @ Phillip Investor Hub, 3 Shan Road
Admission: Only for registered Guests. (60 seating only, first come first served)

If you are interested, pls reply to this email waynekohwg@gmail.com with your name, contact number and age by 24Jul2008 so I can reserve a seat for you.

Monday, July 7, 2008

Fidelity Inflation-Linked Bond Fund

Announcement from FIL Investment Management (Singapore) Limited - 7th Jul2008
============================================================
Don't let Inflation eat your lunch !
Inflationary pressures are beginning to re-emerge around the world.
As a result of energy, food and commodity price surges, consumers are facing a global concern - that inflation is reducing their purchasing power.

We are pleased to announce the launch of our Fidelity Global Inflation-Linked Bond Fund. The Fund offers investors exposure to global inflation-linked bonds which act as a global hedge against inflation.

Fund Name : Fidelity Global Inflation - Linked Bond Fund Launch Date : 9 July 2008 ( 1 day IPO) Share Class : A-USD, A-EUR (Hedged), A-SGD (Hedged)
======================================================
files: GIL PlaceMat.pdf, Fidelity GIL Presentation Deck 2July.pdf, GIL Brochure.pdf
P.s: I am unable to attach the PDF on blogger. If you are interested, pls reply to this email waynekohwg@gmail.com so I can send to you individually via email. All files add up to 900kb.

Channelnewsasia report:-
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/357828/1/.html

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Income tax (for locals)

Today I spotted this webpage from IRAS (www.iras.gov.sg)

Individuals (For locals) http://www.iras.gov.sg/irasHome/page01.aspx?id=86

This is an Excel spreadsheet that you can use to calculate your income tax .
Click on the icon on the left to download the file.

References: My article on SRS (You can use the charts on this article for quick self-assessment of your income taxes but of course you must still go through the spreadsheet for a more thorough self-assessment)

Saturday, July 5, 2008

More on indices-part 2

This is a follow-up to More on indices which was posted in June2008.

The chart is the same, with new inputs at the table below.

New inputs include:
a) Sales charge (SC) of 2.5% for all the pseudo investment amounts;
b) Added "Gold" as well this time round;
c) Included RSP (a.k.a Dollar-cost averaging or "Drip in money") of $100 per month;
d) Included sharpe ratio calculation (Risk-free rate, Rf assumed at 5%)

Observations:-
1) Indian market (BSE) is the most efficient market amongst all, with a sharpe ratio of 7.89;

2) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the entire portfolio of 11 markets/ assets is 5.25% per annum on a "Drip in money" method, which is pretty decent since using this method reduces market timing risk. The key objective of this approach is to preserve/ grow the purchasing power of the value of money (NOW) to be on par (or better) than inflation.
(p.s: SG inflation has been 0.8% p.a annualized over past 10 years, so making 5.25% p.a using SG Dollars living in SG would have been ok.)


CONCLUSION:

Please also note the above indices do not necessarily represent an appropriate portfolio mix by any standard. To further improve the IRR, can consider using a core-satellite approach to the Dollar-cost averaging or "Drip in money" strategy.

Markets are expected to be volatile for next 24 months or so and inflation will hover around 5-6% p.a for next 24 months, and hence for people who are non-full-time-traders, i.e normal working people, the best option seems to be: Dollar-cost averaging or "Drip in money" strategy.

Please seek professional advise before you make any investment.

BTITR

Buy Term Invest The Rest and reduce taxes

Recently one of my clients wants to invest in an ILP (Investment-linked policy) after hearing from his friend who is an insurance agent. He wanted to buy this ILP from me and asked for my opinion and I went on to work out the sums.

Budget: S$1,200 per mth

The proposed ILP's quote has embedded Critical illness waiver of premium, which means upon diagnosis of critical illness will waive the future premiums required to fund the investment. Total investment capital over 25 years is S$360,000 (S$1,200 x 12 month x 25 years), and insurance coverage is on a gradual reducing basis.

Is there a better way to do it? Yes, I break up the monthly sum of $1,200 into a term insurance (S$300,000 protection for death, TPD, Critical illness cover) and feeding into my UT-RSP portfolio using a "Drip in money" strategy

1) S$105 for term insurance (S$300,000 protection for death, TPD, Critical illness cover): S$300,000 coverage is constant throughout, while the ILP is on reducing basis.

2) S$1095 for investment -"Drip in money" strategy
(Client can also divert this money into SRS and invest from SRS and saves on income tax which is about $500 & above, based on S$41,000 chargeable income).
note: $500 savings is almost 5 months' worth of term insurance premiums.

RESULT:
A) Based on ILP's 5% and 9% projection, the end amount are S$484,597 and S$826,145 respectively.
B) Based on my UT-RSP's 5% and 9% projection, the end amount are S$625,225 and S$1,128,995 respectively.

See graph below:-What's more, if this client should unfortunately be diagnosed with critical illness, at let's say on the 21st year of the plan, there is huge difference in the total NAV (Net Asset Value) of the plan:-

a) ILP: payout is only the NAV (estimated S$590,933 at 21st year) of the underlying funds; with the "Critical illness waiver of premium" rider, although client does not need to pay anymore future premiums, he can only expect to receive S$826,145 at the end of 25 years, based on 9% projection.

b) UT-RSP + Term insurance: Upon diagnosis of critical illness, payout from insurer is S$300,000. Based on my UT-RSP's 9% projection, NAV is estimated at S$756,626. If client decides not to invest anymore upon illness, his takeaway amount would be S$1,056,626 at the 21st year. NAV of UT-RSP portfolio at 25th year is estimated at S$1,128,995 (if there is no critical-illness-insurance-claim)

Comparison: "UT + Term insurance" achieves much better (78.8% better) than ILP when there is an insurance payout; "UT + Term insurance" achieves better (36.7% better) than ILP if there is no insurance payout.

However, what ILP triumphs over "UT-RSP+Term insurance" is the commission payout to the agent/ adviser.
Based on the above example, ILP pays S$7200 to the agent in the first year, "UT-RSP+Term insurance" pays S$800 to the agent. Difference: S$6,400 (89% lesser)

My client has decided not to go with the ILP after my explanation. He asked me why I did this, I said I'd better do what I think is best and right for my clients. My commission will come in the form of more referral businesses in the longer run.

Note: Term insurance premiums (or any insurance, for that matter) is subjected to age and insurability, the client's age in the above example is 26 as of 05Jul2008, smoker with no pre-existing conditions. Term insurance has a specific maturity date and some provide coverage of up to age 65 only. The above BTITR strategy is suitable for people who has long term investment horizon (at least 10 years) and be able to stomach some risk and volatility in the markets. This strategic portfolio should form only part of a person's retirement plan, it may be advisable that one has a conventional whole-life insurance plan with limited payment terms for long term protection plan. In my opinion, ILP should be considered only when there is absolutely no other choice available.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

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MMF update

This is a follow-up to MMF rtn vs Bank deposit rates which I post on a monthly basis.


Remarks: $1,000 parked in MMF would have yielded $6.09 more than savings rates YTD since 1st Jan2008. I am comparing MMF to savings because of their withdrawal flexibility.
Other figures as shown above. Fixed Deposit, on the other hand, is not as flexible when it comes to withdrawal.

MMF annualized returns as of 1Jul2008 since 1Jan2008: 1.475% p.a

Property Loan- SIBOR

People who know me would know that I have never been a proponent of taking up "floating rate" property loans. It is for the worry of causing "disruptions" (inconvenience) to the monthly cash flows, particularly when rates go up. Having a fixed rate eliminates the need to monitor and worse, if you have to watch the rates going up (in despair, literally) while still serving a "lock-in" obligation period (if there is any).

However, in one of my recent cases for a client in refinancing, due to some reasons, leaves us not much choice but to really look into it.

I went on to find out about the Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA), calculated the standard deviation, average etc and found it worth a consideration, amongst the rising fixed rates and tightening screening criteria and rules now.

My personal take: 3-mth SIBOR + 1%

References:
Standard Chartered SIBOR-pegged Home Loan (3-mth SIBOR), DBS SIBOR Package, ERA Singapore

Based on SCB's, as of June2008 : 1.19% + 1% = 2.19%
Worst case scenario is 3.39% + 1% = 4.39% within next 24 mths

click on image to enlarge