WIIN-BFS

Remarks: My BFS is ahead of Index Fund by 37%.
Date Start: 1Jan2008
NAV = $4,390 as of date 02Sep2010
Annualized returns (since 1Jan2008) = -3.84% p.a
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Benchmark: iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (ETF)
Date Start: 1Jan2008
NAV = $3,196 as of date 02Sep2010
Annualized returns (since 1Jan2008) = -14.62% p.a

Project Snowball

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Sunday, August 31, 2008

Win It Like 4D

For people who have been treating 4D as an "investment", here are some numbers to show there is a better way to outperform 4D in the longer term.


If you buy all possible permutations within 0000-9999 with S$1 "Big" bets in a draw, you would need to spend S$10,000. The winnings would just be S$6,590 for the 23 sets of 4D winning numbers. A loss of S$3,410.

For more details on 4D, pls refer to Singapore Pools' website.

Assuming that a person "invests" S$10 per draw-3 draws per week-52 weeks, the annual "investment amount" is S$1,560 or S$130 per month.

To break-even, he needs to win consolation prize (smallest prize) 26 times in a year, i.e once every two weeks. The best thing is of course, winning the top prize of S$2,000, which requires only once to break-even and make money.

Assuming that there is not a single win throughout 10, 20 or 30 years, the sunken capital would be:
- S$15,600 (10 years)
- S$31,200 (20 years)
- S$46,800 (30 years)

Conversely, if he invests the S$130 per month using "drip in money", the portfolio value would be:-
If you use the potential portfolio value of "drip in money" to compare against "investing" in 4D, you need to be able to win 3 times First Prize every year consistently throughout 30 years just to be on par with a 8% per annum "drip in money" portfolio. For other comparison, see table below:
4D or "drip in money"?


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